PCP-WISE is coordinated by Barrabés.biz and the lead procurer is STOWA, from the Netherlands, bringing and sharing its case study and experience on earth observation applications for soil-water vegetation systems.

Building on PROTECT’s legacy

The PCP WISE project builds on the activities, documents, case studies, tools and achievements of PROTECT CSA. Notably, PROTECT established a community of 120 public buyers and e-catalogue featuring over 200 suppliers, which will be pivotal for PCP WISE.

Project overview

PCP WISE aims to develop and implement cutting-edge water management solutions using space and EO data. The project targets Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 8 solutions to tackle water-related crises such as floods and fires. Key objectives include creating common operational information products, developing interoperability mechanisms, and building an active user network to boost climate resilience across Europe.

Objectives and Key results

PCP WISE is driven by a set of clear objectives:

1. Encourage public buyers to work with the market to prototype, demonstrate, and evaluate new climate impact solutions.

* Expected results: Enhanced capacity-building, customised space-based Soil-Water systems, and improved crisis response inputs.

2. Develop solutions that enhance decision-making in water management.

* Expected results: Comprehensive business case documents, updated analyses of current technologies, and targeted market exploitation.

3. Facilitate public buyers in achieving shared strategic goals through coordinated procurement.

* Expected results: Reduced demand fragmentation, aligned procurement processes, and competitive service offerings.

4. Provide tools for better water management and climate adaptation.

* Expected results: Effective governance models, deployment of relevant digital data, and strengthened science-policy interfaces.

5. Promote and scale up the adoption of PCP WISE outcomes to tackle water distribution challenges.

* Expected results: Comprehensive dissemination and communication packages, extensive training activities, and standardisation recommendations.

Engaging stakeholders

A vital component of PCP WISE is its commitment to stakeholder engagement. Building on the network established by PROTECT, the project will involve new beneficiaries. A Stakeholder Observatory Group will be established to provide continuous feedback and ensure solutions meet market needs; therefore we invite all interested parties to join us!

For more information, please contact info-protect@group-gac.com

D3.2 Orientation Paper
This document outlines the strategic implementation of Pre-Commercial Procurement (PCP) and Public Procurement of Innovative Solutions (PPI) to tackle four major challenges with significant climate and procurement impacts. It details the preparatory phase activities, adhering to the European Assistance For Innovation Procurement initiative’s methodology, which includes needs identification, state-of-the-art analysis, open market consultation, business case development, and procurement strategy design. The key challenges identified for procurement focus on floods, fires, water management, and sustainable resilient infrastructure, with PCP recommended as the primary instrument due to the necessity for R&D to meet functional requirements.

D3.3 Report on Results of WP3
This report provides a comprehensive summary of the preparatory steps for innovation procurement. It covers identifying unmet needs, engaging with the market through open consultations, and developing business cases to justify pre-commercial procurement (PCP). The report emphasises four primary procurement challenges—floods, fires, water resilience, and sustainable infrastructure—highlighting innovative technological solutions and methodologies derived from extensive state-of-the-art analyses, market feedback, and strategic planning to bridge the gap between supply and demand in climate services.

Visit the PROTECT Knowledge Hub to access these insightful documents and stay informed about our latest efforts and findings.

The goal of the PROTECT project is to enable public authorities to use state-of-the-art public procurement approaches in order to identify climate services based on Earth observation (EO) technologies that best fit the specific and systemic needs of the public sector. The focus of the project is on five application domains namely: Energy & Utilities, Sustainable Urban Communities, Agriculture, Forestry and other Land uses, Marine and Coastal Environments and Civil Security and Protection. This article provides an overview of the Civil Security and Protection application domain, the key challenges within the sector, the existing market solutions and the emerging technological developments as well as some perspectives on the future of climate services for this sector, leveraging EO.

Earth observation for civil security and protection

The Civil Security and Protection sector plays a significant role in addressing the climate change issues and ensuring the safety and well-being of communities. Extreme weather events, resulting from climate change, along with the impact of armed conflict on the environment and post-conflict recovery pose significant risks to the sector’s operations, security of people and critical infrastructures. Elevated temperatures, rising sea levels, desertification, water scarcity, biodiversity loss, environmental pollution, and disrupted livelihoods not only endanger the health and well-being of humanity but also have the potential to drive significant migratory movements, displacement, pandemics, social unrest, and overall instability and insecurity in societies.
Application domain profile

The UN estimates that since 2008 an annual average of 21.5 million people have been forcibly displaced by weather-related events, such as floods and heatwaves. These numbers are expected to increase in the coming decades, exacerbating demographic change and putting stress on cities and urban areas where the demand for housing, food, energy and jobs may rise, thus contributing to increasing social impacts of climate change . It is projected that by 2050 more than one billion people will have insufficient access to water, that soil degradation could rise to 90%, while demand for food could increase by 60% .

In this context, climate services offered through EO technologies are crucial for civil security and protection in adapting to the challenges posed by climate change. By incorporating these services, the sector can enhance its preparedness, response, and recovery capabilities, safeguarding lives, critical infrastructure, and the environment.

The civil security and protection value chain

The Civil Security and Protection sector value chain represents several activities and policies that contribute to the overall functioning and effectiveness, ensuring the safety, security, and protection of individuals, communities, and infrastructure. Due to the significant diversity and varying organisational structures across different geographical regions, the following segmentation provides a high-level overview.

Figure 1: High-Level Value Chain of the Civil Security and Protection Sector

• Assessment: This segment involves measuring potential risks and threats to societal security, conducting risk analyses, forecasting, and developing comprehensive emergency management plans and strategies. It encompasses activities such as identifying hazards, evaluating vulnerabilities, monitoring the impact of human activities, predicting and planning migration and settlement caused by climate change. Policies are implemented to ensure that governments and organisations prioritise risk assessment, establish standardised methodologies, and regularly update emergency management plans in accordance with changing threats.
• Prevention: This segment is dedicated to proactive measures aimed at preparedness for potential emergencies and risks minimization. It includes providing training and necessary equipment to emergency response teams, conducting practice drills and exercises, implementing early warning systems, raising public awareness and education on safety and security measures. Policies are established to enforce mandatory safety protocols and allocate resources for preventive measures, ensuring that proactive steps are taken to avoid emergencies and enhance readiness.
• Response: This segment covers active reaction to emergencies and overall management of incidents as they unfold. It entails various activities, including coordinating emergency operations, facilitating communication, managing command centres, mobilising and allocating resources, conducting search and rescue operations, and prioritising the safety and well-being of affected individuals. Policies play a crucial role in this segment by guiding the establishment of emergency response frameworks, fostering interagency coordination mechanisms, and implementing protocols for effective communication to ensure a rapid and well-coordinated response, safety and security of those affected by emergencies and critical situations.
• Resilience: This segment pertains to the post-incident phase and focuses on the recovery and rebuilding processes. It includes damage assessment, restoration of critical infrastructure and services, resettlement for affected communities, insurance and long-term resilience building measures. Policies are enacted to guide the recovery efforts, allocate funding for reconstruction, establish support systems, and integrate resilience-building measures into the rebuilding process.

Key challenges

While the Civil Security and Protection sector itself does not directly contribute to climate change, it faces substantial challenges associated with the impacts and consequences of the changed weather patterns, key of each are described below.

• Situational awareness and rapid response in extreme weather events. With the increasing frequency and intensity of climate change-driven events such as hurricanes, floods, heatwaves, and wildfires, the Civil Security and Protection sector faces the critical task of taking timely actions to protect lives and mitigate damages. Such phenomena cause significant challenges for the sector, as they require effective emergency response, evacuation planning, and the management of resources. However, achieving enhanced situational awareness can be challenging due to the need for real-time and continuous weather information, damage assessment and integration of early warning systems. According to the Global Commission on Adaptation, giving just 24 hours’ notice of an impending hazardous event can reduce damage by 30 percent. Meeting this challenge requires reliable real-time data sources, advanced monitoring technologies and data analytics to provide decision-makers with accurate and actionable insights.
• Evaluating climate impacts on security operations. Security operations, including national defence and military campaigns, are significantly affected by various climatic hazards, such as extreme weather events, rising sea levels, and changing temperature. They pose direct threats to strategic environment, assets and installations, missions and multi domain operations, resilience and civil preparedness. These impacts can hinder the readiness, mobility, and effectiveness of military forces. The need for enhanced resilience and adaptive capabilities becomes crucial as security operations must contend with unpredictable and intensified climatic conditions. These complex challenges demand strategic planning and the integration of climate considerations into defence policies. Hence, the sector needs to explore solutions that not only deliver real-time weather information but also ensure continuous coverage, and integration of climatological data enabling effective mitigation of climate impacts and enhancing operational resilience.
• Addressing climate change induced insecurity. Security concerns linked to climate change include impacts on food, water and energy supplies and increased competition over natural resources. Livelihoods are at risk, especially in exposed communities reliant on climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and energy, leading to economic instability. Extreme weather events cause substantial infrastructure damage contributing to forced migration and displacement, which can escalate social problems at local and international levels, including resource conflicts, social unrest, and geopolitical tensions. In addition, environmental factors affect energy supplies to both civilian and military domains. Natural disasters can damage or disrupt infrastructure and pose risks to energy security. Restoration and resilience-building efforts become vital in the face of climate-induced damage. As such, climate services can aid in resolving this challenge by providing crucial data and insights for proactive risk assessment and planning, enabling effective response and preparedness to mitigate the impacts of climate change-induced insecurity.

Existing Market Solutions

The combination and integration of space-based systems and terrestrial applications provide an increasing potential for customised solutions that have been developed to address the challenges of the Civil Security and Protection sector. Focusing on various thematic areas, the major EO technology developments followed by specific examples are described below.

EOTechnologies

For the Civil Security and Protection sector, some of the major technological advancements in EO include the launch of meteorological and imaging satellites to collect weather and remote sensing data, the development of data processing algorithms using artificial intelligence (AI) and the creation of usecase specific, EO-based climate services that are aimed at solving a particular problem within the sector.

The first major trend in EO impacting the civil security and protection domain is the increasing number of launches of meteorological and imaging satellites. As of 2022, over 1,000 satellites in orbit are categorised as EO satellites, which includes those that monitor the land, the oceans and the atmosphere. One of the largest EO programmes in the world is the Copernicus programme from the European Commission, with an objective to monitor and forecast the state of the environment on land, sea and in the atmosphere. With a constellation of Copernicus Sentinel satellites, the data collected is then integrated with non-satellite sources to provide reliable and up-to-date information about six thematic areas. For the Civil Security and Protection sector, at least four of the thematic areas including security, emergency, climate change and land remain relevant.

Among meteorological missions, EUMETSAT’s Meteosat, which has been an invaluable data source for weather forecasting since 1977, has introduced the Third Generation with the launch of the most innovative weather satellite for the early detection and prediction of fast-developing severe storms, weather forecasting and climate monitoring. Another European programme MetOp has improved its accuracy, including extending short-term forecasts by one day.

The second major trend is the emergence of AI, which has a profound impact on the processing of data collected by satellites. With the explosion in the amount of data, it is important that only the useful subset data, for the Civil Security and Protection sector, is processed to provide actionable insights. As such, AI has a crucial role in the growth of the EO sector, specifically to convert the raw data collected by satellites into useful information.

The final trend is the growth in use-case specific climate services for the Civil Security and Protection. Data collected from satellites is processed with the help of AI and then integrated into climate solutions that solve a particular problem for the sector. An example of this, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) provides climate information to support policies related to disaster risk reduction, as well as practices to address weather-related risks.

Climate Services for Civil Security and Protection

The following figure presents an overview of the EO-based climate services for the Civil Security and Protection sector. While it provides an expanded summary of services positioned on the value chain, this section will also detail some specific user case.

Figure 2: Examples of Climate Services for the Civil Security and Protection Sector

The following are 9 examples of Earth observation solutions for climate-related civil security and protection challenges:

1 – Early warning systems

combine forecasting, monitoring, and alert services to provide timely and accurate information about potential hazards. These systems use EO data, weather forecasts, and monitoring technologies to analyse and predict floods, wildfires, storms, and other climate-related risks. In particular, a European-wide weather alert system coordinated by EUMETNET provides real-time severe weather warnings and forecasts for various hazards, including storms, heavy rainfall, extreme temperatures, and strong winds. European Flood Awareness System uses a combination of weather forecasts, hydrological models, and satellite-based observations to monitor river levels and predict floods. Emergency and Disaster Information Service enables access to real-time information on natural disasters, industrial accidents, and public health threats and aiming to facilitate the rapid exchange of information and support coordination among civil protection authorities and organisations.

2 – Monitoring and forecasting migration and settlement

EO-based climate services play a crucial role in understanding and addressing the climate impact on human migration and settlement dynamics. Satellite imagery and data from meteorological sensors are used to analyse climate conditions in areas prone to migration. By examining temperature, precipitation, vegetation health and water conditions, regions experiencing climate-related changes driving migration patterns can be identified. Also, EO-based climate services contribute to forecasting climate drivers for migration. By integrating climate change models, and projections, these services can anticipate future climate scenarios and associated risks, such as extreme weather events, sea-level rise, or prolonged droughts. Such forecasts enable policymakers and stakeholders to anticipate potential migration patterns and plan for adaptation and resilience measures accordingly.

As an example, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts utilise satellite observations as part of broader climaterelated research and monitoring activities alongside other climate-related datasets to gain insights into climate change dynamics, weather patterns, and environmental conditions.

3 – Post-event analysis

EO technologies are used to conduct detailed assessments of climaterelated events, including the extent of damage, changes in land cover, infrastructure and assets, or impacts on vegetation health, and provide valuable insights into the aftermath of disasters, facilitating informed decision-making for response planning, resource allocation, and targeted recovery efforts.

As an example, Copernicus Emergency Management Service offers rapid mapping and monitoring products that utilise EO data to assess and analyse the impacts of natural and man-made disasters, including earthquake monitoring, flood mapping, and wildfire analysis, contributing to effective post-event analysis and decision-making in civil security and protection.

4 – Climate Risk Preparedness

Climate services for preparedness represent a range of capabilities aimed at enhancing readiness and response to climate-related risks, supporting the Civil Security and Protection sector in adapting for and mitigating the impacts of climate change, strengthening resilience, and ensuring effective response measures are in place to protect lives, infrastructure, and the environment. EO data is applied to provide insights on climate patterns, extreme weather events, and environmental changes. Stakeholders can assess vulnerability, identify high-risk areas, and develop targeted preparedness strategies, including early warning systems, contingency planning, resource allocation, and training programs. As an example, Copernicus Emergency Management Service provides various tools and services that utilise EO data for risk assessment and planning, offering hazard maps, vulnerability assessments, and early warning systems to support proactive preparedness efforts.

5 – Rapid mapping

Rapid mapping services involve the prompt and accurate assessment and mapping of climate-related events and their impacts. Satellite imagery, information from meteorological satellites and other climate data sources, fusion algorithms and enhanced geoinformation tools are utilised to provide insights on the extent of damage, changes in land cover, and other critical factors following natural disasters or emergencies. In particular, The European Rapid Mapping Service is a part of the Copernicus Emergency Management Service. It provides geospatial information within hours from activation.

6 – Search and rescue

Climate services for search and rescue leverage EO data and beacon technologies to enhance situational awareness, support efficient response coordination, and improve the effectiveness of operations in both aviation and land-based contexts.

• Beacons for aviation: In the aviation sector, climate services utilise beacons that transmit distress signals in case of emergencies. These beacons, such as Emergency Locator Transmitters (ELTs) and Personal Locator Beacons (PLBs), provide a critical tool for locating downed aircraft and individuals in remote or hazardous environments. By integrating climate data, weather forecasts, and satellite communication, these beacons assist in improving the chances of successful SAR operations.
• Beacons for land: Similarly, climate services include the use of beacons for landbased SAR operations. These beacons, such as Personal Locator Beacons (PLBs), satellite tracking devices, or Emergency Position Indicating Radio Beacons (EPIRBs), allow individuals in distress to transmit their location to SAR teams. These beacons enhance the speed and accuracy of locating individuals in need of rescue, particularly in challenging terrain or adverse weather conditions.
• Situational awareness supporting search and rescue: Climate services also incorporate situational awareness tools that utilise Earth observation data and satellite imagery. These tools provide real-time monitoring of weather conditions, terrain, and other environmental factors relevant to SAR operations. By integrating these data sources with SAR protocols and navigation systems, search and rescue teams gain improved situational awareness, enabling them to plan and execute operations more effectively.

For example, an EU initiative Galileo Search and Rescue Service integrates GNSS with SAR capabilities, incorporates distress beacons which can transmit distress signals and location data to SAR authorities enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of operations in Europe.

7 – Infrastructure Planning

Climate services for infrastructure planning involve the use of geospatial data to enhance the resilience of infrastructure systems.

• Permits and assessment: EO data is applied to assess the environmental impact and suitability of infrastructure projects. Coupled with geospatial information, they support permit applications, environmental impact assessments, and land-use planning providing insights into factors such as topography, land cover, vegetation, and hydrological conditions, and enabling more informed decisions regarding the location and design of infrastructure.
• Vulnerability analysis: By integrating meteorological data, remote sensing, and modelling techniques, climate services can assess the vulnerability of infrastructure assets to various climate-related hazards, such as sea-level rise, extreme weather events, and changes in temperature or precipitation patterns. This analysis enables identification of critical infrastructure at risk, prioritisation of adaptation measures, and development of resilient strategies to minimise potential impacts.

As an example, ESA’s Urban Thematic Exploitation Platform (U-TEP) utilises high-resolution satellite imagery and aerial photography, to aid in permits and assessment processes for infrastructure projects. Also, it and combines remote sensing, and geospatial data to assess the exposure, vulnerability, and resilience of infrastructure systems to climate-related risks.

8 – Insurance for natural disasters

encompasses applications that utilise EO data, to assess and manage risks associated with natural disasters. These services are instrumental in providing insights to insurance companies, enabling them to effectively evaluate and mitigate the potential impacts of climate-related events on insurance portfolios. By analysing EO data, stakeholders can assess the likelihood and severity of natural disasters, evaluate the vulnerability of specific areas or properties, and estimate potential financial losses. Meteorological satellites provide real-time and high-resolution data on weather patterns, atmospheric conditions, and climate variables, enabling accurate risk assessment and forecasting. Furthermore, EO data can support claims management processes by providing before-and-after imagery of affected areas, aiding in the assessment of damages and expediting the claims settlement process. In addition, EO-based climate services facilitate the identification of high-risk areas and help insurance companies tailor their products and premiums, address specific climate-related risks and enhance risk modelling by providing accurate and up-to-date information on climate conditions, environmental factors, and trends to assess the likelihood and potential severity of natural disasters.

As an example, ESA’s Climate Change Initiative on Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) provides long-term, quality-controlled EO datasets for various ECVs, such as sea surface temperature, sea level, and land cover. Insurance companies can utilise these services to assess the risks associated with climate change, including changes in sea levels, extreme weather events, and land use patterns by incorporating them into their risk modelling systems.

9 – Critical infrastructure

EO-based climate services for critical infrastructure combine a wide range of applications aimed at supporting the construction, monitoring, maintenance, and emergency response of infrastructure systems to provide valuable insights and information for various stages of critical infrastructure lifecycle management.

• Construction operations: high-resolution satellite imagery, aerial photography and climatological statistics are essential data sources for site selection, planning, and design purposes. They enable identification of suitable locations, assessment of terrain conditions, and visualisation of the surrounding environment to ensure optimal construction practices.
• Monitoring the impact of human activities on infrastructure enables the detection and assessment of changes on infrastructure systems. By analysing historical information on land use, urbanisation, and environmental invasions, authorities can assess potential risks and vulnerabilities to infrastructure systems. Land cover maps and population density data contribute to understanding the human impact on infrastructure and inform decision-making for protection measures.
• Infrastructure monitoring: EO facilitates continuous monitoring of infrastructure, including transportation networks, power grids, water resources, and communication systems. By integrating data from meteorological satellites and other sources, stakeholders can control the condition, performance, and resilience of infrastructure, enabling timely maintenance, early detection of anomalies, and timely response to potential failures or disruptions.
• Predictive maintenance: by leveraging EO data, such as thermal imagery, vegetation indices, and structural monitoring, operators can detect anomalies, identify potential failures, and schedule maintenance activities proactively. Integrating meteorological data enhances the understanding of climate-related risks, allowing for weatherdependent maintenance planning and reducing the likelihood of disruptions. This proactive approach helps optimise schedules, reduce downtime, and enhance the overall reliability of infrastructure systems.
• Emergency assistance and design of infrastructure: During emergencies, spaceenabled climate services provide rapid mapping and situational awareness, aiding in damage assessment, resource allocation, and the coordination of emergency services. Geospatial sources provide analysis and insights into flood-prone areas, seismic zones, and other hazard-prone regions, guiding the design of infrastructure that can withstand climate-related risks within hours.

As an example, the above-mentioned ESA’s U-TEP platform utilises EO data to support the monitoring and management of critical infrastructure in urban areas. Furthermore, the EU’s INSPIRE Directive promotes the use of EO data and other geospatial information for infrastructure monitoring and management. It aims to facilitate the exchange of geospatial data among European countries to support the effective monitoring, assessment, and planning of critical infrastructure.

Future Developments

As the EO market undergoes rapid progress with the continuously increased number of user cases, the volume of data obtained from satellites also steadily rises. Anticipated technological advancements encompass the expansion of sensors capable of detecting alterations on, above, or beneath the Earth’s surface. While there are several existing climate service solutions available for the Civil Security and Protection sector, it is important to understand the upcoming developments that might have an impact in the future.

The Copernicus programme is expected to see an evolution in the following years with the launch of the next generations of Sentinel satellites, designed to expand the current capabilities and address EU policy and user needs, including natural disasters, and climate change. New satellites LSTM, CRISTAL and ROSE-L will be launched as of 2027 to expand the current capabilities in key areas such as food security, irrigation and water scarcity. Other missions are expected to bring new sensors to provide valuable data for addressing security and protection challenges, aiming to improve situational awareness and support decision-making processes.

Among meteorological missions, the Meteosat Third Generation will enable access to critical data for short-term and early detection of potential extreme weather events over the next 20 years. Metop-SG mission will further improve weather forecasting and climate research, using 10 different instruments, covering ultraviolet, visible, infrared and microwave spectral bands.

In future, it can be expected that satellite data will become highly democratised for use by end-users in the sector. Therefore, organisations might choose to develop their climate services in-house as opposed to acquiring services from the market.

Conclusions

The Civil Security and Protection sector is confronted with significant challenges as climate change leads to a rise in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing threats to infrastructure, societal well-being, and security. To tackle these challenges, EO-based climate services provide a valuable solution by improving preparedness, facilitating risk assessment, and enhancing decisionmaking processes, enabling the sector to effectively respond to and mitigate the impacts of climaterelated events. By leveraging satellite imagery, meteorological information and advanced geospatial technologies, these services provide crucial information for monitoring and readiness to changing environmental conditions, ensuring the long-term viability and resilience of critical infrastructure and safeguarding the safety and well-being of communities.

As space technology continues to evolve and satellite data becomes more accessible, EO-based climate services in the Civil Security and Protection sector are experiencing a growing demand and increasing recognition. Satellites offer scalable and actionable solutions, enabling authorities to effectively address the impacts of climate change, optimise resource allocation, and enhance the sector’s capacity to respond to emergencies. As the awareness and adoption of EO technologies grow, the market for climate services in the sector is expected to expand further, leading to increased resilience, improved decision-making, and a more sustainable approach to protecting societies and critical infrastructure in the face of climate-related challenges.

The goal of the PROTECT project is to enable public authorities to use state-of-the-art public procurement approaches in order to identify climate services based on Earth observation (EO) technologies that best fit the specific and systemic needs of the public sector. The focus of the project is on five application domains namely: Energy & Utilities, Sustainable Urban Communities, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use, Marine and second Environments and Civil Security and Protection. This article provides an overview of the first application domain, Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Uses, the key challenges within the sector, the existing market solutions and the emerging technological developments as well as some perspectives on the future of climate services for this sector, leveraging EO.

What is agriculture, forestry and other land uses?

Agriculture, forestry, and other land uses (AFOLU) covers an array of environments and encompasses great potential and need for climate services. Unsustainable use of agricultural and forest practices (e.g. overexploiting the soil, converting forests into agricultural land) create huge amounts of greenhouse gases and disrupt the already fragile equilibrium in the local ecosystems (GEF).

Using sustainable forest and land management practices with a view on long term and systemic impact can instead help those ecosystems retain and store significant amounts of carbon and preserve their fragile equilibrium.
The products of these sustainable practices could then fuel bioeconomy – a corollary of circular economy, where renewable biological resources from land and sea (such as crops, forests, fish, animals, micro-organisms etc.) are used to derive products, processes and services in all economic sectors within the frame of a sustainable economic system. (EC, Bioeconomy council).

The role of Earth observation in Agiculture and Forestry

Climate services using Earth observation in the domain of AFOLU can contribute to a more optimised and sustainable exploitation of the land (based on precision agriculture, natural resources management) as well as counter the growing challenges related to the climate crises (i.e., providing forecasting and alerts on extreme weather events).

The AFOLU has a substantial impact on climate change, accounting for 23% of net global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and being the second largest emitting sector after energy . More widely, food system-related emissions, represent 34% of total GHG emissions per year, primarily comprising agriculture production and land-use activities (71%), with the remainder (29%) originating from other supply chain activities (retail, transport, consumption, etc.) . Due to substantive contribution to GHG emissions, the AFOLU sector is uniquely positioned to deliver significant climate mitigation benefits in a relatively low-cost and quick manner.

Nonetheless, the AFOLU sector is also directly influenced by the consequences of climate change, including severe weather phenomena that can result in significant harm to soil conditions, vegetation health, crop productivity and management of infrastructure associated with the sector. EO-based climate services play a crucial role in facilitating the monitoring solutions, aiming to safeguard and equip the sector for climate adaptation and the development of sustainable services for food security and environment protection.

The agriculture and forestry value chain

The value chain for the AFOLU sector represents the sequence of processes involved in field preparation and input supply, production, distribution and utilisation of agricultural and forest products, land sustainability and compliance aspects of agricultural, forestry, and other land-use activities.

Figure 1: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use – Value Chain

• Provision: This segment involves preparing the land for agricultural or forestry activities before sowing to ensure optimal plant growth, efficient resource utilisation, and contribution to sustainability of the land use. It includes functional zoning and infrastructure assessment, vegetation clearing, ground levelling, tilling, installation of irrigation systems, agro-climatic monitoring, soil enhancement, etc. This stage also involves the provision of inputs such as seeds, fertilisers, pesticides, machinery, and other resources necessary for production.
• Production: This segment represents the agricultural activities taking place in the field, including seed sowing, cultivating, soil conditions monitoring, fertilisation, irrigation, yield management, as well as rearing and livestock care. In forestry, this comprises tree growth and health control, biomass monitoring, disease and pest management, timber inventory and harvesting, wood and raw material generation, and so on.
• Distribution: This segment focuses on the development of efficient supply chains to connect producers with consumers of agricultural and forestry products. It involves activities such as logistics, transportation, infrastructure monitoring, storage, warehousing, etc.
• Utilisation: This segment pertains to the final stage of the value chain, including food consumption, wood for construction and manufacturing, bioenergy generation, and various other uses. It also presents practices for sustainable land management such as crop rotation planning, soil erosion control, biodiversity conservation, monitoring of greenhouse gas emissions etc., compliance with environmental regulations, and implementation of corrective measures to mitigate negative impacts.

It is important to note that the AFOLU value chain can vary significantly depending on regional contexts, and market dynamics. Different crops, livestock, forestry products, and land use practices have unique characteristics and may require specific arrangements.

Key challenges

In contrast to other sectors, the AFOLU can facilitate climate mitigation in several different ways. Specifically, it can reduce emissions as a sector in its own right, remove meaningful quantities of carbon from the atmosphere and relatively cheap, and provide raw materials to enable mitigation within other sectors, such as the energy industry or the built environment. However, the sector encounters several challenges in light of the climate adaptation, key of each are described below:

1 – Accounting of risks caused by natural phenomena and land use

Climate change brings increased variability and more frequent extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, and shifts in temperature and precipitation, and as a result changing growing seasons that disrupt agricultural and forestry practices, impacting overall land productivity and sustainability. Moreover, the sector is closely associated with environmental problems caused by human activity, such as land degradation, soil erosion, deforestation, desertification, and biodiversity loss. Anthropogenic involvement directly affects more than 70% of the global, icefree land surface . Unsustainable land management, including intensive agriculture and improper forestry techniques, contribute to these issues, threatening ecosystem health and resilience. Therefore, the AFOLU sector must adapt its focus towards seeking remedies that deliver insights concerning meteorological circumstances and also ensure a persistent supply of information on spatial changes across designated areas of concern.

2 – Responding to food security threats

Observed climate change is already distressing food security through increasing temperatures, changing precipitation, and greater frequency of extreme events, and this trend is expected to continue in future. Particularly, changing weather patterns negatively affect crop yields in lower-latitude regions. Vulnerable pastoral and fruit and vegetable production systems are also at risk. Moreover, the problem of climate change driven land degradation is higher in pathways with a higher population, while urban expansion is projected to cause conversion of cropland leading to losses in food production that can result in additional pressure to the food system. As such, providing continuous and accurate information on weather patterns, along with reliable monitoring and early warning systems is crucial for the AFOLU sector to respond to the impacts of climate change on food security.

3 – Balancing increasing demands and environmental sustainability

According to recent statistics, the global demand for food is projected to increase by approximately 50% by 2050 . The demand for water is also anticipated to surge, with agricultural water consumption estimated to increase by 20-30% in the next two decades . Additionally, the production of biofuels is expected to rise significantly, with a projected annual growth rate of 6.2% between 2020 and 2027 . Sustainable intensification involves enhancing productivity without expanding agricultural land, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, and conserving natural resources. Striking a balance between the need for increased production and environmental preservation is vital to ensure long-term viability while minimising detrimental effects on ecosystems. As such, it is essential to provide accessible and comprehensive solutions that can analyse climate trends and timely environmental insights at both regional and local scales to predict how these changes will affect crop yield, and ultimately return on investment.

Existing Earth Observation Solutions

The combination and integration of space-based systems and terrestrial applications provide an increasing potential for customised solutions that have been developed to address the challenges of the AFOLU sector. Focusing on various thematic areas, the major Earth Observation (EO) technology developments followed by examples of project activities and innovative services for the AFOLU sector are described below.

Earth Observation Technologies

For the AFOLU sector, some of the major technological advancements in EO include the launch of meteorological and imaging satellites to collect weather and remote sensing data, the development of data processing algorithms using artificial intelligence (AI) and the creation of use-case specific, EObased climate services that are aimed at solving a particular problem within the sector.

The first major trend in EO impacting the AFOLU sector is the increasing number of launches of meteorological and imaging satellites. As of 2022, over 1,000 satellites in orbit are categorised as EO satellites, which includes those that monitor the land, the oceans and the atmosphere . One of the largest EO programmes in the world is the Copernicus programme from the European Commission, with an objective to monitor and forecast the state of the environment on land, sea and in the atmosphere. With a constellation of Copernicus Sentinel satellites, the data collected is then integrated with non-satellite sources to provide reliable and up-to-date information about six thematic areas. For the AFOLU sector, at least three of the thematic areas including land, atmosphere and climate change remain relevant .

The second major trend is the emergence of AI, which has a profound impact on the processing of data collected by satellites. With the explosion in the amount of data, it is important that only the useful subset data, for the AFOLU sector, is processed to provide actionable insights. As such, AI has a crucial role in the growth of the EO sector, specifically to convert the raw data collected by satellites into useful information.

The final trend is the growth in use-case specific climate services for forecasting applications. Data collected from satellites is processed with the help of AI and then integrated into climate solutions that solve a particular problem for the sector. An example of this, the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) helps the sector plan for the future, increasing the efficiency of food production and improving food security with near real-time climate data, seasonal forecasts, past and future climate comparisons, and etc.

Climate services for agriculture and forestry

The following figure presents an overview of the EO-based climate services for the AFOLU sector. While it provides an expanded summary of services positioned on the value chain, this section will also detail some specific user case.

Figure 2: Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use – Climate Services

Here is a non-exhaustive list of 19 Earth Observation applications for agriculture, forestry, and other land uses, that re relevant for local authorities:

1 – Carbon capture and content assessment

Carbon capture and content assessment is an emerging technology that leverages EO-based remote sensing to monitor and assess carbon dioxide emissions and capture efforts. Satellites equipped with specialised sensors can provide valuable insights for understanding carbon emissions at a global scale . Remote sensing tools can measure carbon-storage efforts in isolated tracts of woods, offering a quicker, less costly way to count the benefits of carbon sequestration.

2 – Environmental impact monitoring

Environmental impact monitoring is crucial for assessing and managing the effects of human activities on the environment. It allows for accurate and timely assessment of land use changes by constructing a reference baseline from historical data and ongoing projects, including deforestation, desertification, pollution and contamination, habitat degradation, fragmentation, change in exposure to natural disasters, for example, flood and landslide, and so on .

3 – Biomass monitoring

Biomass is at present monitored using optical satellites, SAR and LiDAR technology, but it is still poorly quantified in most parts of the world having the global potential in understanding the carbon cycle and management of forests, biodiversity and ecosystems. The ALBIOM is an example of an innovative project that has been implemented to derive forest biomass using SAR Altimetry Data from the operating EU’s Copernicus Sentinel-3 Mission . A dedicated mission for biomass monitoring for carbon assessment is planned for launch in 2024 .

4 – Deforestation and degradation monitoring

Deforestation and degradation monitoring is vital for the AFOLU sector as it provides essential data on the extent and rate of forest loss, helping to identify areas at risk, inform conservation efforts, and promote sustainable land management practices. EO technologies are increasingly being used to monitor forest areas to reverse deforestation and degradation, providing global, comprehensive, and timely data to assess recent trends, support early detection, and monitor changes in forest cover and carbon stocks. The EU-funded REDD Copernicus project proposes a framework for a Copernicus REDD+ Service using the planned Copernicus Data and Information Access Services
Platform for improving accessibility and functionality . EO4SD-Forest is another example of ESA’s initiative which aims to support International Finance Institutions and their Client States with tailored EO-based information for Forestry Management decision making .

5 – Crop yield forecasting

Crop yield forecasting plays an important role for the AFOLU sector providing insights on resource allocation, market planning, and food security interventions based on projected harvests. Satellite imagery linked with process-based crop simulation models, machine learning, spatial indicators, and maps of crop production over different geographical locations is used to support predictions. The European Crop Monitoring System aims to provide a quantitative yield forecast at the national level for all major crops, as well as a bulletin reporting agro-meteorological conditions and a detailed analysis . Among other examples, ESA’s SMOS mission is used for droughts tracking and wheat crop yield prediction .

6 – Soil condition monitoring

Soil condition monitoring in the AFOLU sector involves the assessment of key parameters such as moisture content, nutrient levels, pH, and soil erosion. It enables farmers and land managers to optimise fertilisation, irrigation, and erosion control practices, leading to improved crop productivity and sustainable land management. As an example, ESA-funded WORLD SOILS project is designed to develop a pre-operational Soil Monitoring System for yearly estimations of Soil Organic Carbon at global scale, exploiting space-based EO data and leveraging large soil data archives and modelling techniques to improve the spatial resolution and accuracy of maps .

7 – Vegetation monitoring

Vegetation monitoring entails the observation and analysis of plant health, growth, coverage and biomass production. In agriculture, it aids in assessing crop conditions, detecting pests and diseases, optimising irrigation and fertilisation, and supporting sustainable land management practices. In forestry, multi-sensor EO and in situ data can be integrated to monitor changes in forest cover and carbon stocks, allowing for the implementation of a more complete measurement, reporting, and verification system for forest degradation and emissions.

8 – Forest inventory monitoring

EO-based forest inventory monitoring complements traditional field-based inventories, providing a broader and cost-effective perspective on forest dynamics. It offers valuable information for sustainable forest management, conservation planning, and climate change mitigation efforts. Satellite applications are used for reliable calculations and risk assessment, including forest gain and loss, insect outbreaks, woodland vegetation and regeneration maps, and consequences of forest fires and other natural events, as well as human activities.

9 – Forest vegetation health monitoring

Forest vegetation health monitoring enables a comprehensive and cost-effective assessment of forest condition at regional and global scales, providing critical information for forest management, biodiversity conservation, carbon accounting, and climate change mitigation strategies. By analysing the spectral data captured by satellites, valuable insights into the health, stress levels, disease and plagues and productivity of forests can be gained. The Forest Information System for Europe (FISE) is the first common database on forest information in Europe, offering tailor-made information generated with the use of Copernicus programme .

10 – Asset monitoring

Asset monitoring involves the continuous tracking and evaluation of various assets, such as agricultural machinery, forestry equipment, infrastructure such as irrigation systems and processing facilities, land and natural resources. It enables efficient asset utilisation, maintenance planning, and optimization of operations. By monitoring assets, stakeholders in the AFOLU sector can improve productivity, reduce downtime, and ensure the effective management of resources, ultimately leading to enhanced operational efficiency and profitability. As an example, ESA-funded Smart Geotechnical Asset Management (GSAM) service aims at offering an innovative and semi-automatic decision-making supporting system for asset management and predictive maintenance purposes, taking advantages of innovative data-fusion algorithms and satellite EO technologies .

11 – Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) monitoring

CAP monitoring is essential for the AFOLU sector as it enables compliance with agricultural regulations, supports the effective implementation, and facilitates the assessment of environmental and socio-economic impacts of agricultural practices. To ensure the success of the CAP, agricultural activities need to be monitored on a pan-European scale. Satellite imagery from the Copernicus program, provides a valuable tool for monitoring agriculture by combining high-resolution optical data with radar imagery and field-specific parameters. These applications go beyond the CAP requirements, which include crop classification, diversification, agricultural activities, and preservation of grassland and ecological focus areas . As an example, ESA-funded Sen4CAP project utilises satellite imagery along with in-situ data to generate valuable information for effective CAP implementation22.

12 – Pastureland management

Pastureland management involves implementing practices to optimise the productivity and health of grazing areas, ensuring sustainable forage production, promoting soil conservation, and supporting production in the AFOLU sector. EO-based climate services support pastureland management by optimising grazing strategies, assessing carrying capacity, and mitigating the effects of climate change on forage availability. As an example, the WORLDSOIL project, EO-based soil monitoring systems can be used to produce a final product that can cope with different spatial and temporal scales and support pastureland management.

13 – Precision irrigation

Precision irrigation sector implies advanced technologies, such as sensors and data analytics, to optimise water usage in agricultural and land-based activities of the AFOLU sector. By providing real-time information on soil moisture levels and crop water requirements, precision irrigation services enable targeted and efficient water application, conserving resources, maximising crop yield, and promoting sustainable water management practices. As an example, ESA-funded EOLO project is designed to help saving water and energy by predicting the optimal water needs and monitoring the crop health through satellitebased remote control of the irrigation systems .

14 – Variable rate application (VRA)

VRA refers to the process of applying inputs such as fertilisers, pesticides, or irrigation water at different rates within fields, based on the specific needs of different geographic areas. This approach aims to optimise resource usage and improve crop yields while minimising environmental impact. EO-based climate services play a crucial role in supporting VRA by providing valuable data and insights for decision-making. As an example, the EU Navigation Overlay Service can enable accurate and efficient VRA in agriculture, by combining different satellite technologies, including EO and GNSS .

15 – Forest asset management

Forest asset management encompasses strategic planning, monitoring, and utilisation of forest resources. It involves activities such as timber harvesting, reforestation, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem services assessment. Effective forest asset management ensures sustainable consumption of forest products, economic viability, and environmental stewardship, contributing to the long-term sustainability of the AFOLU sector. By integrating EO data, forest managers can make informed decisions for sustainable forest management, conservation, and biodiversity preservation.

16 – Forest exploitation certification

Forest exploitation certification refers to the process of verifying and certifying sustainable and responsible forest management practices. It involves the assessment of factors like timber harvesting methods, environmental impact, social and economic considerations, and adherence to legal requirements.

Monitoring tools based on EO data help detect illegal logging activities, assess forest disturbances, and monitor reforestation efforts. By integrating EO-based climate services with certification processes, these services aid in promoting transparency, and contributing to the conservation of European forest ecosystems.

17 – Snow and ice monitoring

Snow and ice monitoring is crucial for the AFOLU sector as it provides essential information on land conditions, glaciers, and frozen ground in preparation for the growing season. In addition, this information helps in water resource management, flood prediction, and understanding the impacts of climate change on ecosystems. Near-real time climate services provide timely inputs on snow and ice covered regions, detect early and exact ice, and measure snow and ice thickness. In particular, radar remote sensing enables important data from snow and ice covered alpine and polar regions, which are difficult to access while optical imaging can be used to detect snow over land by accurately correcting for the atmosphere and identifying clouds, observing and monitoring ice extent over rivers and lakes, and monitoring snow cover.

18 – Climate services for agriculture

EO-based climate services for agriculture leverage satellite monitoring data to provide valuable insights into climate patterns and their impact on agricultural practices. Such services offer farmers information on long-term climate trends, seasonal variations, and extreme weather events. This data helps farmers anticipate and mitigate the effects of climate change, optimise crop selection and planting schedules, and implement appropriate adaptation strategies. Particularly, Copernicus Climate Change Service data help the agricultural sector plan for the future, increasing the efficiency of food production and improving food security.

19 – Weather forecasting for agriculture

Weather forecasting for agriculture enables timely and accurate predictions of weather conditions that directly impact farming activities. These services utilise meteorological data, satellite imagery, and advanced modelling techniques to forecast parameters like temperature, rainfall, humidity, wind speed, and solar radiation. By providing farmers with reliable weather forecasts, agricultural stakeholders can make informed decisions regarding irrigation, planting schedules, crop protection measures, and harvesting. This helps optimise resource management, minimise crop losses, increase productivity, and support sustainable agricultural practices in response to changing weather patterns.

Future Developments

As the EO market undergoes rapid progress with the continuously increased number of user cases, the volume of data obtained from satellites also steadily rises. Anticipated technological advancements encompass the expansion of sensors capable of detecting alterations on, above, or beneath the Earth’s surface. While there are several existing climate service solutions available for the AFOLU sector, it is important to understand the upcoming developments that might have an impact in the future.

The Copernicus programme is expected to see an evolution in the following years with the launch of the second generation of Sentinel satellites, which will cover hyperspectral imaging that can support environmental impact assessments, microwave imaging that can significantly enhance land management and environmental applications. Other missions include emissions monitoring satellites that will provide greenhouse emission reporting, thermal infrared imaging that can provide insights on the solar irradiation and site assessments, measurement of the world’s forest biomass and changes monitoring, assessment of the fluorescence emitted by plants which can indicate their photosynthetic activity and stress levels. This data will contribute to more accurate monitoring of vegetation health and enable improved agricultural practices . In addition, several commercial companies are also launching their own satellite constellations, which can complement data provided by public data sources with more frequent observations and enhanced accuracy.

In the future, it can be expected that satellite data will become highly democratised for use by end-users in the AFOLU sector. Therefore, organisations might choose to develop their climate services in-house as opposed to acquiring services from the market.

Conclusions

Climate change poses significant challenges to the AFOLU sector, with profound impacts on agriculture, forestry, and land use. Extreme weather events, changing precipitation patterns, and rising temperatures are affecting land productivity and causing serious concerns regarding sustainability of the environment. The AFOLU sector plays a critical role in global food security, making it imperative to develop climate-resilient practices, and prioritise investment in the development and adoption of innovative solutions to monitor and respond to changing environmental conditions. Addressing the impacts of climate change is crucial for ensuring the long-term viability and sustainability of the sector.

EO-based climate services tailored for the AFOLU sector are gaining momentum due to advancements in space technology and the increasing availability of satellite data. Satellites offer unique and scalable solutions for delivering actionable information, making them an invaluable source in the pursuit of sustainable development goals. As awareness and adoption of EO technologies grow, the market for climate services in the sector is poised for further expansion in the years ahead.

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